RJ's Final Prediction

[RickJames]

Map: Campgrounds

Monk is surely relying on bridge and dungeon matchups going in his favor with this pick.

Snky really excels at bridge. He may be an inconsistent player, but bridge is his home and, when he's on, he is one of the most intimidating guys outside of the top 10 to take control away from at this spot. Paired with the best performing amp runner in the league, Monk, his team has a really good chance of beating whatever combo HULK's team sticks there- likely rummy and humpty. Not that rum and humpty will be pushovers. An amp in Rum's hands could easily make things get out of hand quickly, and Rum loves to help statues whenever he gets a chance. With these matchups, extra pressure on statues from HULK's bridge players could put Monk's team in a hole, but more on that in the following paragraphs.

At statues, I'm expecting Ravonix vs blackout. Ravonix is not the type of player who will get shut down by anyone 1v1 at statues. However, blackout has been performing at a top level at this spot and I think he has the fragpower to get an edge over Ravonix. Statues is the kind of position that is easy to hold and difficult to retake, and this means that a slight edge can easily turn into a large gap in points if the leading player has occasional help from bridge. Perhaps HULK's team will rely on consistent sniping at statues from rum/humpty to create a gap in points here that Monk/snky team will have to work to compensate for by sacrificing some of their bridge focus.

Cafe vs kud in dungeon favors Monk's team. Kud is a smart and balanced player, but cafe's brute force ability matches that of players way above his salary. At a basic cp like dungeon, I think his aim will be a little too much for kud to handle. It won't be a blowout, but it's enough of a boost for Monk's team that I give them the edge on this map.

Map: Tempest

Monk's focus with this pick is definitely the high perch cp. Perch is another spot where snky's strengths (as a 3rd man) rival that of many first and second picks in the league. Monk/snky will be a much bigger challenge at this spot for humpty/blackout than pete/bug was. After seeing how much humpty and blackout struggled vs team NakedMan, I think Monk and snky will be flexing hard with some amp runs here.

At low, I'm expecting Monk to match Ravonix up with rum. I feel this spot suits him better than armor, and it wouldn't make sense for monk to risk setting cafe or ulo vs rum. Any matchup here favors Rum, but I don't think that he'll be able to create a very significant points gap vs Ravonix here. The cp is too fast for players as close in experience and fragpower as rum and ravonix not to more or less cancel each other out.

cafe vs kud at armor favors cafe for the same reasons as dungeon. Brute force aiming down a tight corridor, perfect for cafe's style.

Again, I give Monk's team the edge here.

Map: Seraphim

HULK's team is likely relying on mid and high matchups with this pick.

At middle, I'm expecting Ravonix to face Rummy. Rummy really excels at this spot, and is more than capable of building up large point leads here vs the very best players in the league. Ravonix will have his hands full, and unless he really manages to step up, I expect rum to win this spot by a significant margin.

I don't think monk will risk setting cafe at low vs kud or humpty (I'm expecting kud, but not totally sure). I think snky will play here, and I think he has a good shot of gaining a slight edge over either kud or humpty and balancing the mid deficit a bit. I think the mid deficit will be higher than what snky can make up on his own, though.

At top, I'm expecting monk and cafe vs blackout and (kud or humpty). This matchup favors HULK's team for sure. blackout is very well suited to this spot, with his long range aim ability and the fact that it's one of the few 2 man cps that is easy to access quickly without much hassle. He can just sit on the point, wait for his opponents, and rely on face-to-face frag advantage.

I give the advantage to HULK's team on this map

Map: Typhoon

HULK's team is likely not expecting monk to be able to answer them at both the ledge and hideout cps.

I'm expecting humpty at high, paired with either blackout or rummy. If blackout plays high, rummy will play hideout and vice-versa. Monk doesn't have a great answer to either rummy or blackout at hideout. Snky, ravonix, and Monk himself are all good hideout players, but none of them strong enough to be expected to beat Rummy. Ravonix could have a slight edge over blackout, but even that is debatable and it likely wouldn't be a large one.

I think Monk will put ravonix at hideout and rely on himself and snky at ledge to contend with humpty and (rum or blackout). At a very chaotic point like ledge, I think this matchup again favors HULK's team and their fragpower edge. However, Monk is one of the few amp runners who can be really effective in high level play on typhoon, and if he gets the opportunity to go on a tear, he could totally swing things at both ledge and hideout. Getting such an opportunity on typhoon is pretty rare, though.

If we have kud vs cafe at low, I think it'll be a wash. Low point is rarely a blowout even in uneven matchups, and this one is close enough that I don't think much of an impact will be had here.

I give HULK's team the edge here, but I think Monk's team has a better chance of taking typhoon than they do seraphim.

My overall prediction is a 5-mapper, with Monk's team winning map 5 (I don't think HULK's team has a great chance at winning any potential 5th map besides peak, which monk will surely eliminate). However, I think a 4 mapper with Monk winning all maps besides Seraphim also is a solid possibility.

[Monk]

I would be very happy if we win even 1 map. HULK's team are big favourites considering the circumstances and the lineups